* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ESTELLE EP061992 07/10/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 53 53 52 47 46 45 45 45 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 53 53 52 47 46 45 45 45 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 41 43 46 48 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 25 22 20 21 19 19 17 19 20 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 12 6 9 12 13 9 15 19 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 -1 0 -5 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 280 250 280 299 283 282 272 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 145 144 144 138 133 131 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.1 -55.6 -55.6 -55.4 -55.6 -55.1 -55.6 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 69 73 70 71 74 70 71 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 9 8 10 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 7 10 12 18 16 57 68 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 72 38 13 27 48 70 95 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1133 1195 1269 1276 1298 1383 1431 1449 1482 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 12.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.3 113.2 114.2 114.9 115.6 117.5 118.4 118.8 118.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 8 7 4 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. -22. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 18. 17. 12. 11. 10. 10. 10.