* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DARBY EP051992 07/10/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 21 18 17 18 18 18 15 16 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 4 5 12 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 10 8 4 5 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 52 4 44 72 61 65 45 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.0 19.8 19.8 19.8 19.4 18.7 17.9 8.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 59 58 57 58 60 60 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -53.1 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 47 46 43 42 43 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 10 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 88 86 84 66 64 56 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 -11 -14 3 -3 2 7 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 713 680 672 665 587 436 252 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.6 30.8 31.0 31.6 32.4 33.5 34.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.6 125.8 125.9 126.0 125.5 124.2 122.7 121.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 2 4 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):353/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -18. -22. -25. -30. -31. -32. -34. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25. -25. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -12. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -13. -19. -31. -42. -54. -65. -71. -78. -83. -89.