* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ESTELLE EP061992 07/10/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 46 47 46 46 46 45 44 45 45 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 46 47 46 46 46 45 44 45 45 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 43 45 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 18 18 17 17 19 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 6 2 8 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 4 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 311 8 13 273 269 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 141 145 144 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -55.2 -55.6 -55.5 -56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 69 73 70 70 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -26 -14 14 32 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 45 42 30 34 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1055 1059 1086 1240 1458 1419 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.1 13.3 11.6 11.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.6 114.5 116.0 117.0 116.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 12 17 10 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 10. 10.