* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ESTELLE EP061992 07/10/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 48 54 58 61 62 62 62 62 61 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 48 54 58 61 62 62 62 62 61 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 20 19 18 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 3 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 292 329 295 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 144 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -55.2 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -15 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 13 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1104 1179 1234 1283 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.9 114.3 115.7 116.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 23. 26. 27. 27. 27. 27. 26.