* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ESTELLE EP061992 07/10/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 47 50 52 52 51 49 48 48 47 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 47 50 52 52 51 49 48 48 47 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 41 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 18 16 19 18 16 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 10 14 18 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 280 278 290 299 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 141 140 142 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.1 -55.6 -55.7 -55.2 -56.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 77 77 76 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 34 54 78 91 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 84 96 105 100 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1079 1125 1167 1192 1224 1264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.7 113.4 113.7 114.1 114.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 5 3 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 15. 17. 17. 16. 14. 13. 13. 12.