* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ESTELLE EP061992 07/13/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 87 83 81 78 73 66 62 59 56 53 50 48 V (KT) LAND 95 87 83 81 78 73 66 62 59 56 53 50 48 V (KT) LGE mod 95 87 83 80 77 73 67 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 29 28 23 23 22 26 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 10 6 3 13 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -1 -5 1 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 355 3 352 289 261 270 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 138 138 138 141 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.4 -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 -55.5 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 71 72 71 71 72 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 11 11 12 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 57 59 58 52 49 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 100 84 50 43 63 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1440 1560 1683 1792 1855 1831 1720 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.0 14.4 13.7 13.1 12.6 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.8 123.0 124.0 124.7 124.9 124.0 122.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 8 5 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. -1. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -6. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -12. -14. -17. -22. -29. -33. -36. -39. -42. -45. -47.