* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FRANK EP071992 07/14/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 40 43 41 38 29 28 28 29 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 40 43 41 38 29 28 28 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 34 34 33 33 32 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 23 20 21 18 19 22 26 29 33 30 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 18 19 17 19 21 27 21 22 23 29 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 -2 -6 -2 -4 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 282 289 282 268 272 259 245 237 225 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 147 148 149 146 144 142 145 147 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.8 -55.2 -55.4 -54.9 -55.9 -54.9 -55.5 -54.2 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 70 72 72 72 77 78 78 76 77 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 8 10 10 11 11 13 13 13 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -11 -18 -14 -4 31 59 83 63 30 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 34 53 51 53 94 102 101 176 98 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 664 690 727 809 824 856 930 984 898 641 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 13.9 13.4 13.0 12.6 11.9 10.9 10.4 10.9 13.0 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.1 107.9 108.7 108.3 107.8 107.4 107.5 106.8 105.8 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 5 4 7 6 4 1 7 16 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):267/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -24. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 13. 11. 8. -1. -2. -2. -1.