* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FRANK EP071992 07/15/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 69 67 65 61 58 54 51 49 46 43 V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 69 67 65 61 58 54 51 49 46 43 V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 69 68 67 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 19 15 15 13 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 6 7 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 346 310 283 272 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 137 136 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 72 74 72 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 9 7 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 40 23 33 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 624 670 713 746 757 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.6 109.9 110.4 110.7 110.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):327/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 2. -0. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -19. -22.