* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GEORGETTE EP081992 07/15/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 46 54 59 64 69 71 69 63 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 46 54 59 64 69 71 69 63 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 29 28 28 29 31 34 37 39 38 V (KT) G00R 31 32 29 32 33 37 40 45 53 56 50 57 47 SHEAR (KT) 11 10 15 19 18 9 3 8 5 4 12 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 2 0 6 0 0 -1 3 0 -1 6 0 SHEAR DIR 241 209 241 236 219 206 198 208 125 303 239 334 302 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.2 26.6 25.7 24.6 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 146 145 145 142 141 145 139 133 123 112 105 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.9 -55.3 -55.0 -54.3 -55.0 -53.8 -54.3 -53.0 -53.7 -52.8 -53.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 700-500 MB RH 79 81 81 78 78 79 78 76 72 72 66 60 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 17 17 17 21 23 25 26 29 31 31 30 850 MB ENV VOR 20 25 23 34 43 38 29 24 53 58 73 69 66 200 MB DIV 102 81 79 91 133 129 113 65 103 70 43 -27 15 LAND (KM) 456 401 387 408 397 419 492 507 601 639 773 960 1192 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.2 12.6 12.7 13.2 13.9 14.1 15.3 16.9 18.3 19.6 21.0 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 96.5 97.2 98.7 99.7 100.6 102.7 105.0 107.2 110.1 113.7 117.3 120.9 124.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 12 10 10 12 11 14 17 19 17 20 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):296/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 25. 26. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -12. -13. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 22. 21. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 16. 24. 29. 34. 39. 41. 39. 33.