* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FRANK EP071992 07/15/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 67 65 60 56 52 48 46 44 42 40 V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 67 65 60 56 52 48 46 44 42 40 V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 68 68 67 64 61 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 32 18 16 17 15 14 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 12 12 9 9 13 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 1 2 -1 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 314 297 295 279 278 300 327 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 136 135 134 133 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -54.4 -54.9 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 72 73 71 67 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 14 18 26 27 42 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 33 22 8 16 47 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 599 626 648 707 771 846 992 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.3 16.2 16.1 15.5 14.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.7 110.2 110.8 111.5 111.9 113.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):327/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. -0. -5. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. -23. -25.