* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GEORGETTE EP081992 07/15/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 36 43 52 57 60 59 57 54 52 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 36 43 52 57 60 59 57 54 52 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 29 28 28 28 30 31 33 33 34 V (KT) G05R 38 35 31 31 36 41 43 47 54 52 50 52 44 SHEAR (KT) 13 10 12 16 17 13 7 9 9 3 7 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 2 2 10 -1 1 0 1 8 2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 250 216 232 235 223 226 206 224 213 294 259 291 262 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 28.0 28.3 27.1 26.2 25.6 25.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 147 146 143 142 145 149 137 129 121 118 117 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.9 -55.3 -54.9 -54.2 -54.9 -53.8 -54.3 -53.1 -53.7 -52.9 -53.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 11 11 10 11 11 10 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 80 81 82 79 79 81 79 76 74 71 65 59 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 17 17 17 20 24 25 27 26 25 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 21 25 22 48 57 40 38 31 65 88 119 102 83 200 MB DIV 102 87 57 62 128 149 111 46 85 15 50 7 -21 LAND (KM) 428 390 382 397 415 486 582 627 765 822 1056 1267 1428 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.8 13.9 14.9 16.2 17.5 17.8 18.2 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 96.8 97.7 99.2 100.6 101.7 104.1 106.3 108.6 111.7 115.4 119.2 122.3 125.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 15 13 11 13 11 15 16 20 16 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):296/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 26. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 3. 9. 11. 14. 13. 12. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 13. 22. 27. 30. 29. 27. 24. 22.