* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ESTELLE EP061992 07/16/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 28 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 57 41 30 30 27 26 23 23 21 21 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 19 16 18 20 20 19 17 13 17 16 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 17 19 18 17 14 7 -1 -4 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 35 24 27 24 32 44 48 59 67 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.0 22.8 22.6 22.4 22.3 22.5 23.4 24.0 24.5 25.4 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 90 88 86 85 84 86 97 102 110 121 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.3 -54.1 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 37 39 39 36 35 29 30 26 25 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 23 20 16 14 13 11 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 1 -7 -13 -20 -15 -20 -6 -5 15 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 -15 7 0 -1 1 0 -18 -4 -18 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1263 1294 1330 1373 1440 1573 1759 1975 1873 1475 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.1 23.3 23.6 23.8 23.4 22.7 21.8 21.1 20.2 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.3 126.8 127.3 127.9 128.7 130.2 132.2 134.3 136.9 140.7 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 7 9 11 9 16 22 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):291/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -10. -11. -11. -9. -10. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -6. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -3. -5. -8. -13. -17. -22. -24. -26. -27. -25. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -14. -22. -30. -43. -53. -61. -67. -69. -76. -78. -79.