* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ESTELLE EP061992 07/16/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 28 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 39 30 29 29 23 19 17 17 18 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 21 20 27 30 26 20 17 18 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 15 14 14 10 8 4 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 60 48 44 49 47 43 24 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.4 22.1 21.8 21.6 21.6 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 86 83 79 77 76 77 79 82 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -53.0 -53.6 -54.2 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 39 39 38 35 31 23 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 21 19 17 15 13 11 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -3 -13 -9 -15 -17 -31 -39 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 -10 -8 -9 13 9 4 7 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1124 1166 1171 1178 1196 1269 1364 1444 1647 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.3 25.9 26.4 26.7 26.7 26.3 26.7 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.7 126.4 127.2 128.1 128.8 129.9 130.8 132.3 134.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 6 5 5 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):291/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. -23. -25. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -8. -13. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -6. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -22. -26. -25. -26. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -14. -23. -32. -49. -65. -79. -93.-101.-112.-117.-120.