* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FRANK EP071992 07/17/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 94 88 83 70 58 51 47 46 44 42 41 V (KT) LAND 100 98 94 88 83 70 58 51 47 46 44 42 41 V (KT) LGE mod 100 99 95 89 84 74 66 61 58 57 56 54 52 V (KT) G08R 28 29 25 25 25 25 27 26 27 25 27 30 30 SHEAR (KT) 13 8 11 13 13 12 12 11 10 7 11 24 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 2 3 1 0 0 -1 1 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 312 298 288 304 319 326 326 339 349 1 15 27 21 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.8 24.9 25.8 25.9 26.4 26.4 26.0 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 128 125 123 114 124 125 130 128 126 129 127 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 61 59 56 52 55 58 59 57 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 17 16 16 14 12 12 12 12 12 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR 23 44 56 66 88 101 104 84 72 66 54 60 56 200 MB DIV 27 24 -19 8 29 15 1 -4 26 25 20 26 28 LAND (KM) 860 904 967 1040 1120 1379 1661 1945 2250 1974 1662 1279 976 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.1 17.1 17.1 16.9 17.3 17.7 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.2 116.6 118.0 119.4 122.9 126.3 130.0 133.6 136.3 139.2 142.8 145.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 14 14 15 16 17 17 16 12 17 16 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):263/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -9. -18. -25. -32. -37. -41. -44. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -10. -8. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -12. -17. -30. -42. -49. -53. -54. -56. -58. -59.