* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FRANK EP071992 07/21/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 65 59 52 39 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 70 65 59 52 39 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 72 68 64 60 52 44 36 27 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 45 40 38 42 39 37 35 33 30 30 26 23 20 SHEAR (KT) 12 9 17 20 16 27 27 46 51 50 43 42 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -6 -6 -3 -4 3 -1 -3 -5 -8 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 132 110 130 130 124 104 84 69 69 68 66 74 78 SST (C) 23.9 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.1 22.2 21.6 21.1 21.3 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 102 103 102 100 99 98 99 94 84 76 68 70 74 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.8 -55.7 -55.5 -55.7 -55.7 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 61 59 60 57 51 49 48 49 43 37 35 35 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 28 27 26 25 23 20 17 16 15 14 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 37 32 30 25 15 2 -6 -19 -24 -43 -55 -55 -56 200 MB DIV -7 -17 6 16 -5 7 14 12 35 4 10 -1 -15 LAND (KM) 2025 1917 1792 1695 1587 1447 1324 1282 1356 1447 1509 1462 1420 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.5 23.0 23.6 24.0 24.9 25.9 27.7 29.9 31.5 32.5 32.1 31.7 LONG(DEG W) 135.5 136.6 137.9 139.0 140.2 142.0 143.9 145.8 147.0 147.7 148.2 148.4 148.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 10 9 11 13 10 7 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):288/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -11. -19. -25. -32. -39. -45. -50. -56. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -12. -21. -30. -37. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -21. -23. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -18. -19. -20. -22. -24. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -23. -36. -51. -71. -90.-108.-125.-138.-150.