* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FRANK EP071992 07/21/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 64 58 53 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 70 64 58 53 41 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 72 68 65 61 53 44 34 25 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 51 39 42 45 42 42 39 36 32 28 23 23 21 SHEAR (KT) 12 14 22 22 17 28 36 53 54 46 37 33 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -2 1 0 5 -8 -12 -6 -7 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 129 140 147 143 113 97 77 69 58 57 68 76 88 SST (C) 24.1 24.2 24.2 24.1 24.0 24.0 23.9 23.2 22.2 21.5 20.8 20.2 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 104 105 106 105 104 103 103 96 85 75 68 61 59 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -54.5 -55.3 -55.8 -55.8 -56.0 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 59 58 58 55 51 49 49 48 45 45 43 42 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 27 26 26 26 25 22 20 18 16 14 12 8 850 MB ENV VOR 58 55 38 29 26 19 15 4 0 -32 -34 -59 -65 200 MB DIV -16 -28 -13 10 -2 28 65 30 15 33 -22 4 -7 LAND (KM) 2019 1906 1787 1654 1516 1320 1192 1197 1304 1377 1492 1609 1703 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.4 21.9 22.6 23.2 24.1 25.7 27.9 30.4 31.9 33.2 34.4 35.5 LONG(DEG W) 135.5 136.6 137.8 139.2 140.7 143.0 145.3 147.1 148.5 149.7 150.0 150.1 150.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 15 13 12 14 13 12 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):288/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -22. -29. -36. -42. -48. -55. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -18. -26. -35. -41. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -14. -16. -18. -22. -24. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -17. -22. -34. -49. -70. -90.-108.-125.-138.-148.