* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FRANK EP071992 07/21/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 65 60 53 40 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 70 65 60 53 40 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 72 68 64 60 54 47 39 31 23 17 DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 40 36 39 42 36 32 33 33 33 33 28 24 22 SHEAR (KT) 12 9 17 18 17 29 33 48 48 40 28 23 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -4 -3 -3 -6 0 -4 -3 -3 -4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 124 119 132 128 120 107 83 69 57 53 49 76 81 SST (C) 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.0 24.1 24.1 23.9 23.5 22.3 21.4 21.1 20.8 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 104 105 106 105 105 104 103 99 86 75 70 66 62 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -54.1 -54.4 -55.1 -55.9 -56.9 -57.1 -57.2 -57.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 58 52 51 52 51 49 42 42 42 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 26 25 24 22 19 17 16 17 18 17 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 52 41 34 34 27 19 12 8 9 -16 -5 -19 -24 200 MB DIV 1 -22 -16 6 -12 0 24 31 48 38 12 -4 -23 LAND (KM) 1990 1869 1733 1583 1435 1243 1114 1065 1175 1313 1378 1456 1543 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 21.9 22.5 23.1 23.5 24.3 25.8 27.7 30.2 32.2 33.1 33.8 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 135.8 137.0 138.4 140.0 141.6 143.9 146.3 148.7 150.5 151.9 152.5 152.3 152.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 16 13 11 15 14 14 8 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):288/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -22. -28. -35. -42. -47. -53. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -15. -23. -30. -34. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -21. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -14. -16. -14. -13. -14. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -22. -35. -48. -64. -78. -91.-103.-114.-121.