* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FRANK EP071992 07/22/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 41 36 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 45 41 36 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 45 41 37 34 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 45 45 45 43 35 30 34 36 31 28 22 22 19 SHEAR (KT) 21 19 27 28 32 53 49 37 25 18 13 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 0 1 5 -7 -2 -3 -4 -1 -5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 137 107 90 87 76 79 68 69 69 97 113 150 153 SST (C) 23.8 23.7 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.1 21.8 20.7 20.1 19.6 19.4 19.5 19.4 POT. INT. (KT) 101 101 99 99 98 94 81 68 59 58 56 57 57 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -54.5 -55.5 -56.7 -56.8 -57.1 -57.6 -58.0 -58.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 53 52 49 47 46 42 36 37 41 41 41 41 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 25 25 24 23 20 20 21 21 17 14 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 9 16 0 -10 -7 -12 -24 -36 -40 -65 -88 -108 -127 200 MB DIV -6 3 18 34 38 27 49 4 6 1 -20 -28 15 LAND (KM) 1653 1551 1461 1386 1315 1283 1415 1625 1730 1828 1874 1845 1823 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.1 24.8 25.4 25.9 27.5 30.3 32.8 34.1 35.0 35.6 35.5 35.6 LONG(DEG W) 139.4 140.6 141.8 142.9 144.0 145.6 146.6 146.6 146.8 146.5 146.7 147.1 147.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 13 15 10 4 5 1 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):301/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -13. -20. -27. -33. -37. -42. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -13. -20. -27. -33. -35. -35. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -16. -20. -22. -23. -22. -21. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -6. -6. -11. -15. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -20. -33. -47. -62. -78. -95.-108.-114.-118.