* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GEORGETTE EP081992 07/22/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 81 74 69 60 55 49 45 41 37 32 26 V (KT) LAND 90 86 81 74 69 60 55 49 45 41 37 32 26 V (KT) LGE mod 90 87 83 78 74 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 36 25 26 23 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 11 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 10 7 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 150 107 78 79 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.8 24.9 24.7 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 113 116 115 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 55 53 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 -5 -7 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 -6 -6 -27 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1303 1374 1520 1740 1966 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.2 19.3 19.1 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.2 124.7 126.7 129.2 131.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 21 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):272/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -11. -19. -25. -32. -37. -41. -45. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -16. -21. -30. -35. -41. -45. -49. -53. -58. -64.