* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FRANK EP071992 07/22/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 40 34 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 45 40 34 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 45 41 38 35 28 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 39 39 40 36 31 28 29 31 31 23 18 16 15 SHEAR (KT) 20 20 26 30 36 54 55 44 34 34 29 26 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 3 0 -8 -5 -4 -5 0 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 140 120 107 105 93 85 77 75 87 100 98 124 135 SST (C) 23.8 23.8 23.9 24.0 24.0 23.7 22.8 21.7 20.8 20.9 20.9 21.0 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 101 102 103 104 103 101 91 78 67 67 67 69 72 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -55.0 -55.8 -57.0 -57.1 -57.0 -57.2 -57.5 -57.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 54 52 47 44 43 44 40 35 39 41 39 36 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 23 21 19 18 15 15 15 16 13 10 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 8 10 -4 -15 -12 -12 -28 -42 -38 -55 -59 -78 -94 200 MB DIV -32 -13 -4 3 15 11 42 23 17 -14 -29 -9 -27 LAND (KM) 1630 1513 1390 1280 1204 1104 1179 1356 1483 1439 1428 1369 1323 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 23.8 24.2 24.7 25.3 26.7 29.1 31.3 32.9 32.8 33.0 32.9 32.9 LONG(DEG W) 139.6 140.9 142.3 143.7 144.9 147.2 148.7 149.0 149.5 150.3 151.1 152.2 153.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 13 12 14 12 10 6 4 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):301/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -22. -27. -31. -35. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -14. -23. -32. -40. -45. -48. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -11. -12. -11. -14. -19. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -22. -34. -47. -65. -80. -98.-113.-122.-126.