* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HOWARD EP091992 07/30/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 47 46 48 47 46 43 41 40 37 36 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 47 46 48 47 46 43 41 40 37 36 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 46 47 48 49 50 52 53 53 52 50 49 V (KT) G08R 45 37 32 34 33 34 35 35 32 34 37 36 32 SHEAR (KT) 9 6 8 8 5 7 7 13 15 23 23 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 3 1 -3 -11 SHEAR DIR 177 198 195 196 186 157 119 95 103 104 109 100 104 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.9 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 138 136 133 128 123 124 126 128 127 132 135 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -54.9 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 57 51 52 53 50 46 41 42 46 45 44 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 18 17 16 15 15 14 14 13 13 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -7 -14 -20 -29 -25 -25 -8 -4 -4 -9 -8 -10 200 MB DIV 25 8 -6 -3 -26 -9 13 -12 -9 -13 -9 -14 -6 LAND (KM) 2147 2195 2213 2222 2240 2045 1771 1483 1193 959 680 463 253 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 14.3 15.1 16.1 17.0 17.6 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.5 17.4 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 128.9 129.8 130.7 131.6 132.7 135.6 138.1 140.9 143.7 146.0 148.7 151.0 154.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 13 15 13 13 13 11 13 11 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):278/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 3. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9.