* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ISIS EP101992 08/01/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 32 32 27 25 23 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 12 13 13 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 37 36 44 50 44 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.2 24.0 23.9 23.8 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 106 104 104 102 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 49 48 43 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 8 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -20 -34 -55 -61 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -24 -6 0 -6 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 963 1097 1243 1405 1567 1896 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.1 21.8 21.4 21.2 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.3 123.9 125.4 127.0 128.7 131.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 15 16 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):267/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -29. -32. -37. -39. -40.