* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JAVIER EP111992 08/01/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 42 48 52 54 54 53 53 54 53 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 42 48 52 54 54 53 53 54 53 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 36 38 38 38 37 37 35 34 V (KT) G10R 29 24 23 22 18 21 21 24 21 27 27 24 22 SHEAR (KT) 9 12 5 7 8 8 11 7 8 10 13 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -5 -5 -3 0 -1 -1 0 2 4 1 -8 SHEAR DIR 193 193 183 156 166 205 230 233 226 225 229 198 193 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 146 145 143 141 141 140 140 140 140 139 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 -55.2 -54.9 -55.3 -55.0 -55.5 -55.4 -55.6 -55.1 -55.5 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 62 63 65 67 67 69 71 70 66 62 60 60 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 7 7 6 7 9 10 10 11 12 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -33 -32 -29 -25 -33 -21 -17 -17 -25 -31 -29 -20 200 MB DIV 40 37 36 51 45 55 34 11 35 63 51 36 2 LAND (KM) 907 1006 1086 1203 1289 1380 1471 1580 1716 1831 1879 1912 1916 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.2 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.2 12.2 12.4 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 109.6 111.0 112.1 113.4 114.7 116.8 118.6 120.3 122.3 123.5 124.2 124.9 126.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 13 12 10 8 10 7 5 3 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):279/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 12. 18. 22. 24. 24. 23. 23. 24. 23.