* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JAVIER EP111992 08/02/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 57 64 72 75 75 76 80 81 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 57 64 72 75 75 76 80 81 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 39 44 50 56 61 63 63 64 V (KT) G02R 34 27 31 29 28 32 37 43 42 41 46 53 55 SHEAR (KT) 10 9 4 4 2 5 3 2 4 4 2 2 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -2 -1 -5 -1 -1 -4 1 4 0 5 SHEAR DIR 154 175 200 189 223 116 138 348 267 226 282 316 210 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.8 27.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 138 136 133 132 134 134 133 132 135 133 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -54.4 -55.0 -54.7 -54.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 73 72 70 71 69 65 63 61 60 55 54 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 17 18 20 22 24 25 28 30 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -21 -17 -10 4 1 -2 4 3 10 12 18 26 200 MB DIV 52 74 84 75 65 28 19 39 19 24 -23 10 0 LAND (KM) 1038 1094 1180 1292 1378 1510 1677 1850 1993 2074 2211 2196 1918 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.1 15.0 15.2 15.8 15.9 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 114.1 115.6 117.0 118.5 119.8 122.2 124.6 126.7 128.5 129.8 132.1 134.4 137.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 11 13 10 10 7 8 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):282/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 21. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 27. 35. 42. 45. 45. 46. 50. 51.