* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JAVIER EP111992 08/08/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 50 52 58 64 68 69 69 67 60 57 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 50 52 58 64 68 69 69 67 60 49 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 44 47 50 55 59 63 68 70 71 71 61 V (KT) G07R 64 52 49 48 42 45 49 51 48 54 49 48 40 SHEAR (KT) 4 5 3 8 11 5 4 4 5 2 9 11 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 2 0 0 -2 1 2 -1 3 -5 4 5 SHEAR DIR 49 38 358 243 240 219 112 113 222 9 284 65 68 SST (C) 27.0 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 140 139 137 134 131 133 131 130 128 128 131 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -53.6 -54.6 -54.1 -54.3 -53.5 -53.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 53 57 61 60 60 57 54 51 53 53 53 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 27 27 25 26 27 27 27 27 26 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR 46 61 72 63 60 40 34 28 26 23 39 46 56 200 MB DIV 51 29 70 58 56 2 -3 41 55 48 95 83 56 LAND (KM) 1543 1390 1282 1226 1137 991 807 623 464 359 221 124 -20 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 14.5 14.0 13.7 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.7 18.6 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 141.0 142.8 144.2 145.0 146.0 147.3 149.0 150.9 152.4 153.1 153.9 154.1 155.7 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 11 9 7 9 9 9 5 7 4 7 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -6. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 18. 24. 28. 30. 29. 27. 20. 17.