* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JAVIER EP111992 08/08/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 46 50 53 61 65 68 70 71 68 65 57 V (KT) LAND 40 42 46 50 53 61 65 68 70 71 68 65 57 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 43 46 48 55 62 69 73 76 79 80 83 V (KT) G09R 45 44 45 39 42 42 43 42 44 45 46 41 34 SHEAR (KT) 5 7 5 4 1 9 10 12 8 8 5 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 6 5 4 6 0 2 0 5 0 -3 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 116 140 145 137 185 95 107 110 95 91 349 99 81 SST (C) 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 132 132 130 130 129 131 130 129 129 129 129 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -53.9 -54.4 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 49 55 59 57 58 61 59 60 61 65 61 57 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 23 23 21 19 13 850 MB ENV VOR 48 52 60 59 51 31 19 17 16 30 34 47 53 200 MB DIV 26 7 28 30 48 0 -31 -2 10 26 47 29 29 LAND (KM) 1559 1429 1275 1145 1018 834 631 502 369 291 226 155 98 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.7 16.0 16.0 16.4 16.5 16.9 17.5 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 140.5 141.8 143.4 144.7 146.0 148.0 150.1 151.8 153.3 154.5 155.2 155.7 156.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 12 11 10 9 8 7 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -5. -8. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. 28. 25. 17.