* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JAVIER EP111992 08/10/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 32 35 39 45 53 54 57 56 50 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 32 35 39 45 53 54 57 56 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 31 31 34 39 46 52 57 59 59 V (KT) G01R 58 39 36 32 32 32 28 31 37 38 45 44 37 SHEAR (KT) 13 16 15 14 8 6 6 6 6 13 13 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 12 9 8 6 -2 -4 -3 1 1 7 8 9 SHEAR DIR 183 186 188 196 209 135 134 98 51 62 63 63 80 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 135 137 136 135 133 133 131 131 133 135 137 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.7 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 55 59 60 59 59 60 58 57 54 52 47 46 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 20 18 18 18 17 16 16 19 19 20 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 13 20 17 18 15 15 3 6 8 6 23 36 36 200 MB DIV 8 32 53 11 10 11 22 10 45 37 12 9 -13 LAND (KM) 791 781 714 592 507 444 458 493 497 516 480 476 570 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.1 14.2 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.7 16.6 16.9 17.7 18.2 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 149.6 150.1 151.0 152.3 153.5 155.6 157.5 158.9 159.8 160.2 160.8 162.0 164.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 11 12 11 10 7 8 4 3 6 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):252/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -5. -6. -3. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 24. 24. 27. 26. 20.