* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JAVIER EP111992 08/10/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 32 34 38 45 51 55 55 52 51 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 32 34 38 45 51 55 55 52 51 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 29 29 31 35 40 46 49 50 V (KT) G10R 59 44 41 42 37 34 34 37 40 43 43 47 45 SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 13 11 5 6 8 10 13 14 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 12 13 11 10 4 2 -3 -1 0 6 7 6 SHEAR DIR 183 203 216 223 237 198 161 119 72 66 69 67 73 SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 137 138 138 138 137 136 133 133 133 134 136 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -53.9 -54.7 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 56 60 62 59 60 61 57 57 55 55 53 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 22 20 20 19 20 19 20 21 22 22 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 10 19 14 11 14 19 7 3 8 16 22 20 22 200 MB DIV 10 31 52 54 51 47 56 42 65 68 26 24 35 LAND (KM) 801 811 791 710 638 577 572 629 625 633 565 519 525 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 13.4 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.7 16.4 17.3 18.1 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 149.8 150.6 151.3 152.2 153.3 155.5 157.8 159.5 160.6 161.3 162.0 162.6 163.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 10 11 11 10 7 7 5 6 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):252/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. -1. -2. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 8. 15. 21. 25. 25. 22. 21.