* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWELVE EP121992 08/10/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 41 44 47 48 48 48 48 47 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 41 44 47 48 48 48 48 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 29 27 26 27 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 3 10 15 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 48 43 57 67 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 131 128 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 64 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 8 11 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 60 59 47 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1699 1738 1815 1895 1992 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.5 16.1 16.5 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.7 127.3 128.8 130.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 19. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. 22.