* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWELVE EP121992 08/12/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 23 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 23 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 22 21 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 29 26 27 25 24 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 18 18 20 23 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 12 10 8 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 29 44 75 91 115 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 115 115 116 116 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 49 47 47 45 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -8 -14 -6 6 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 5 2 -21 -39 -57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1971 2055 2150 2034 1877 1545 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.8 19.2 19.2 19.1 18.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.5 132.6 133.9 135.4 136.9 140.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):263/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -3. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. -23.