* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JAVIER EP111992 08/12/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 36 39 41 42 40 36 36 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 36 39 41 42 40 36 36 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 29 34 40 44 46 46 46 DIS V (KT) G06R 43 31 29 26 25 21 19 19 20 19 18 17 0 SHEAR (KT) 23 19 10 4 3 10 15 21 26 33 34 38 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 1 9 6 3 -1 -6 N/A SHEAR DIR 269 271 277 301 61 85 93 104 96 102 99 87 N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 141 139 137 135 135 136 137 138 140 141 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 -55.5 -55.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 56 51 48 46 41 43 46 46 49 54 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 11 10 10 8 7 6 4 3 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 0 0 -12 -22 -23 -25 -13 -7 -10 -12 -12 N/A 200 MB DIV 10 24 36 36 33 -23 -15 14 9 -17 -9 12 N/A LAND (KM) 792 750 761 799 820 821 868 977 1089 1239 1448 1675 N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.7 15.5 15.9 16.1 16.5 16.7 17.5 19.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.4 159.2 160.3 161.3 162.1 163.6 165.0 166.7 168.4 170.2 172.8 175.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 9 8 7 9 8 11 12 21 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):233/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -7. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 14. 16. 17. 15. 11. 11. 13.