* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWELVE EP121992 08/13/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 24 23 23 22 21 21 21 21 20 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 24 23 23 22 21 21 21 21 20 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 32 29 25 23 20 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 24 27 34 32 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 9 6 -4 -1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 142 150 148 156 151 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 128 128 128 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 46 49 50 46 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 17 23 29 31 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -47 -65 -46 -27 -42 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2061 1981 1882 1750 1612 1325 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.6 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.3 136.1 137.1 138.4 139.8 142.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 13 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):277/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.