* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWELVE EP121992 08/13/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 26 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 26 23 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 19 23 21 20 19 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 23 28 39 43 39 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -6 -12 -6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 148 142 143 148 145 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.5 25.2 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 117 119 119 115 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 44 45 43 40 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 21 29 39 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -31 -55 -39 -21 -12 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2119 2035 1953 1828 1701 1460 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.0 18.9 18.8 18.9 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.6 135.4 136.2 137.4 138.6 140.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):277/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -11. -18. -24. -27. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 3. -0. -5. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15.