* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * TWELVE EP121992 08/13/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 23 23 20 18 17 16 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 23 23 20 18 17 16 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 33 29 25 25 23 21 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 24 26 32 37 29 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 7 -1 -3 10 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 154 156 151 154 154 122 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.8 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 126 124 122 123 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 46 47 47 45 45 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 20 31 40 42 45 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -27 -56 -55 -48 -47 -25 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2144 2061 1956 1841 1705 1412 1120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.5 135.3 136.3 137.4 138.7 141.5 144.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 13 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):277/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -11. -11. -10. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6.