* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ANDREW AL041992 08/23/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 100 103 105 108 115 123 128 131 132 128 125 118 V (KT) LAND 95 100 103 105 108 115 123 128 131 132 67 39 31 V (KT) LGE mod 95 100 104 107 110 119 124 127 124 107 54 35 29 V (KT) G01R 35 24 27 24 25 27 33 42 47 45 29 25 23 SHEAR (KT) 1 6 9 10 6 6 2 2 5 6 1 4 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -6 -4 -3 -2 -3 0 -1 4 0 6 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 4 214 243 268 295 228 288 337 352 307 352 128 88 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.2 29.3 29.0 23.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 152 156 161 164 158 160 153 98 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 145 148 156 161 153 154 140 88 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 -54.8 -55.0 -54.1 -54.2 -53.4 -54.2 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 16 13 12 13 14 14 15 13 16 11 15 12 15 700-500 MB RH 43 45 49 50 52 54 57 54 53 52 57 60 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 10 9 10 9 10 13 16 21 25 21 17 11 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -44 -23 -9 -6 -17 -4 -23 -13 -15 -21 -9 7 200 MB DIV -16 -5 -12 2 -11 15 24 15 18 20 25 -41 24 LAND (KM) 559 475 367 298 198 100 326 377 276 58 -143 -282 -424 LAT (DEG N) 24.8 24.2 24.0 24.0 23.9 24.1 24.7 25.7 26.7 27.7 28.3 28.8 29.2 LONG(DEG W) 70.3 72.2 74.1 75.8 77.7 81.8 86.2 90.2 93.8 96.3 98.6 99.8 101.2 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 16 16 18 20 19 19 14 12 7 7 4 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):263/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 3. -2. -7. -14. -17. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 1. 4. 7. 12. 14. 16. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 8. 5. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 13. 20. 28. 33. 36. 37. 33. 30. 23.