* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LESTER EP141992 08/23/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 60 52 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 66 52 49 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 54 49 37 30 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) G05R 47 41 42 44 33 25 39 15 28 15 16 15 17 SHEAR (KT) 10 13 16 19 24 42 46 51 60 70 76 72 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 0 4 -1 3 2 1 -7 -7 3 4 SHEAR DIR 59 81 78 60 27 33 37 32 50 68 70 61 47 SST (C) 26.2 24.9 16.1 5.6 6.6 8.6 10.6 12.6 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 112 63 63 65 68 67 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -52.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 8 7 9 9 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 65 63 59 53 51 51 50 49 51 58 61 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 26 23 22 19 9 13 18 15 15 18 17 25 850 MB ENV VOR 22 23 40 56 75 74 45 27 -2 30 46 101 129 200 MB DIV 47 34 21 54 124 98 72 52 46 23 26 61 57 LAND (KM) 115 84 -54 36 -115 -663 **** **** **** -951 -435 -376 -484 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.8 27.1 28.5 30.2 35.6 39.5 43.7 47.4 50.0 51.7 52.9 54.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 113.2 112.7 112.1 111.6 108.3 103.1 96.5 89.1 81.2 73.0 69.6 69.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 14 16 23 31 29 36 28 33 17 6 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 0 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 6/ 9 CX,CY: 1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -3. -8. -14. -26. -35. -43. -51. -54. -57. -60. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -8. -16. -30. -49. -70. -85. -92. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 20. 26. 31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -7. -20. -18. -12. -15. -15. -12. -13. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -5. -13. -25. -56. -73. -86.-112.-134.-151.-167.-164.