* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * MADELINE EP151992 08/29/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 52 54 60 65 65 62 58 57 57 57 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 52 54 60 65 65 62 58 57 57 57 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 48 50 53 59 68 76 78 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 25 21 20 19 19 19 16 17 16 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 9 10 9 8 4 10 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -4 -5 -4 -4 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 169 184 185 190 198 141 58 77 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.2 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 143 142 141 138 134 126 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.8 -55.2 -55.4 -55.4 -55.6 -55.4 -55.8 -55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 66 65 63 63 65 62 57 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -27 -19 -19 -17 -8 10 13 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 14 15 -3 5 26 34 37 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2143 2214 2286 2337 2245 2069 1905 1679 1486 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.6 16.4 17.2 18.1 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.7 131.4 132.4 133.2 134.0 135.5 136.9 138.9 140.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 8 8 8 9 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):289/ 23 CX,CY: -21/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 20. 20. 17. 13. 12. 12. 12.