* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * MADELINE EP151992 08/29/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 54 56 63 67 66 62 55 42 29 23 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 54 56 63 67 66 62 55 42 29 23 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 48 50 53 60 68 75 74 66 53 40 30 V (KT) G01R 40 30 27 30 25 25 23 22 19 23 23 25 24 SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 12 9 8 11 20 29 44 53 54 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -3 -4 -4 -6 -8 1 2 3 -1 0 -7 SHEAR DIR 149 170 174 168 171 126 65 68 58 71 69 62 51 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.7 25.9 25.1 24.3 23.3 23.0 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 140 139 136 130 122 113 106 97 95 90 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -55.0 -55.1 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -55.6 -55.6 -55.7 -55.7 -55.8 -57.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 62 62 64 61 60 61 59 54 49 43 40 44 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 10 9 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -12 3 0 -7 4 27 14 22 5 5 1 34 200 MB DIV -3 38 40 20 27 55 49 69 60 32 27 13 28 LAND (KM) 2104 2152 2210 2269 2272 2118 1953 1823 1738 1770 1832 1809 1657 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 16.2 17.0 18.0 19.3 20.9 22.9 25.3 28.6 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 130.5 131.2 132.0 132.8 133.6 134.9 136.3 137.4 138.2 138.1 138.1 139.0 139.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 11 15 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):289/ 23 CX,CY: -21/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -0. -6. -13. -21. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -0. 2. 2. -0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 18. 22. 21. 17. 10. -3. -16. -22.