* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * MADELINE EP151992 08/29/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 54 57 64 67 62 54 51 49 48 47 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 54 57 64 67 62 54 51 49 48 47 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 48 51 54 61 68 71 66 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 37 28 23 21 21 21 19 19 21 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 16 8 12 10 8 9 20 32 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -7 -4 -6 -5 -2 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 154 141 140 155 144 85 69 71 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 26.7 25.9 25.3 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 141 140 137 131 122 117 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -55.2 -55.0 -55.4 -55.4 -55.8 -55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 64 65 63 61 64 62 59 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 5 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -27 -15 -12 -15 -11 -12 -23 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 32 40 19 19 33 38 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2128 2176 2237 2269 2141 1915 1703 1517 1374 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.9 17.8 18.7 20.0 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.6 131.4 132.5 133.6 134.7 136.7 138.6 140.3 141.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 11 11 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):289/ 23 CX,CY: -21/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. -0. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 22. 17. 9. 6. 4. 3. 2.