* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * NEWTON EP161992 08/29/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 47 50 55 59 64 65 66 65 66 67 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 47 50 55 59 64 65 66 65 66 67 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 48 54 60 65 72 80 86 DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 25 27 28 30 27 29 30 27 24 22 21 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 15 17 20 17 10 4 8 9 12 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -8 -11 -14 -10 -3 -2 -1 -3 -4 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 148 154 166 169 178 192 184 110 104 89 93 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.0 27.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 145 143 140 140 143 146 145 141 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.0 -55.6 -55.3 -55.4 -55.2 -55.2 -55.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 12 12 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 53 52 52 55 55 57 58 60 57 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -50 -48 -49 -43 -49 -56 -60 -54 -60 -51 -47 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 24 12 8 27 6 -4 -3 24 4 18 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1274 1359 1441 1500 1579 1738 1969 2190 2368 2128 1846 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.0 14.5 14.6 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.9 117.7 119.3 120.6 122.1 124.8 127.7 130.5 133.1 135.3 137.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 15 14 15 13 15 13 12 11 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):276/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 21. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 20. 24. 29. 30. 31. 30. 31. 32.