* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * NEWTON EP161992 08/29/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 47 52 56 59 63 66 68 71 71 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 47 52 56 59 63 66 68 71 71 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 43 46 53 59 66 74 82 89 93 93 V (KT) G09R 25 25 25 23 21 23 21 21 20 20 19 22 22 SHEAR (KT) 11 13 15 17 17 13 13 15 13 11 19 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -7 -12 -13 -10 -6 -8 -2 -5 -1 -1 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 192 188 192 190 187 187 139 125 134 112 113 99 104 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.7 29.0 28.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 146 146 145 148 151 154 154 156 150 142 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.6 -55.8 -55.7 -55.6 -55.9 -55.3 -55.3 -55.0 -55.1 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 52 50 51 50 49 52 52 56 63 70 72 72 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -50 -47 -43 -40 -41 -41 -38 -26 -13 -14 -13 -13 200 MB DIV -12 18 17 5 -10 -26 -6 32 46 37 4 19 55 LAND (KM) 1319 1445 1577 1677 1754 1929 2191 2459 2233 1882 1563 1288 964 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 11.8 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.0 13.9 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 117.1 119.0 120.6 121.9 124.9 128.2 131.6 135.2 138.5 141.8 144.2 146.9 STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 17 14 14 15 17 17 16 17 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):276/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 23. 27. 29. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 17. 21. 24. 28. 31. 33. 36. 36.