* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * NEWTON EP161992 08/29/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 48 50 52 53 53 54 54 56 58 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 48 50 52 53 53 54 54 56 58 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 47 53 57 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 23 23 23 23 20 22 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 16 20 25 26 22 20 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -11 -15 -13 -9 -7 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 156 159 165 175 181 189 185 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 147 144 143 144 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.5 -55.7 -55.7 -55.5 -55.7 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 53 54 55 58 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -72 -69 -60 -52 -55 -56 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 26 16 13 21 -9 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1334 1426 1547 1638 1700 1924 2146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.7 13.0 12.9 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.5 117.6 119.6 121.2 122.6 125.6 129.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 20 18 15 14 17 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):276/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 6. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. 19. 21. 23.