* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * NEWTON EP161992 08/31/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 43 47 53 56 54 48 47 46 47 48 V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 43 47 53 56 54 48 47 46 47 48 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 33 34 36 42 49 53 54 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 30 33 32 31 30 26 24 20 20 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 6 8 13 16 19 17 27 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -5 -7 -7 -8 -3 -2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 181 131 117 113 111 122 97 93 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.3 26.5 25.5 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 142 142 138 129 120 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -55.3 -56.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 10 11 10 11 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 59 62 64 65 67 62 58 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -52 -50 -40 -25 -9 -8 -21 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 47 42 31 13 -1 5 3 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1858 1923 2042 2154 2250 2036 1778 1531 1196 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.9 17.8 19.2 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.8 128.1 129.8 131.4 132.9 135.7 138.0 140.2 143.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 15 15 12 12 13 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):289/ 22 CX,CY: -20/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. -1. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 18. 21. 19. 13. 12. 11. 12. 13.