* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * MADELINE EP151992 08/31/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 29 28 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 29 28 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 21 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 26 23 21 19 19 16 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 21 24 31 34 42 54 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -4 -4 -3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 85 74 90 96 92 88 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 124 124 124 120 116 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.8 -55.4 -55.5 -55.5 -55.4 -55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 9 9 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 56 54 52 51 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -64 -32 -14 -2 8 15 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 24 16 1 27 -28 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1573 1452 1332 1178 1110 1080 1050 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.9 18.2 18.8 19.5 20.4 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.1 141.1 142.2 143.6 144.2 144.5 145.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 13 11 6 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -4. -11. -19. -28. -35. -39. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 2. 3. 4. 3. -4. -8. -15. -20. -24. -24. -24.