* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * INIKI EP181992 09/08/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 45 50 51 53 52 47 41 35 28 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 45 50 51 53 52 47 41 35 28 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 37 37 37 35 34 33 32 31 31 30 29 V (KT) G01R 60 43 42 49 53 48 49 61 47 35 28 31 31 SHEAR (KT) 17 21 20 20 15 10 10 11 7 2 16 16 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 9 6 10 10 8 16 13 9 5 0 2 SHEAR DIR 194 220 216 212 225 234 266 229 192 87 269 300 334 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 26.8 26.4 26.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 149 148 145 142 140 138 132 126 124 125 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -52.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 13 11 12 700-500 MB RH 63 66 67 66 69 71 71 68 69 67 59 53 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 26 27 28 30 29 29 26 22 19 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 64 68 54 49 51 48 52 26 13 -12 -23 -15 -51 200 MB DIV 107 67 83 80 107 68 83 49 70 67 53 18 8 LAND (KM) 1326 1203 1077 940 813 605 395 245 100 83 33 205 418 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.4 15.6 16.7 18.6 20.6 21.7 23.4 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 144.9 146.2 147.5 148.8 150.0 152.4 154.2 155.4 156.7 157.4 157.6 157.2 158.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 9 9 11 10 10 7 10 15 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):264/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 8. 9. 5. -1. -5. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 16. 18. 17. 12. 6. -0. -7.