* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * INIKI EP181992 09/08/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 42 45 44 46 52 47 45 42 42 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 42 45 44 46 52 47 45 42 42 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 37 37 35 33 32 31 31 30 30 30 V (KT) G02R 39 40 39 46 47 46 38 39 51 42 37 42 45 SHEAR (KT) 23 20 19 20 16 6 9 8 6 8 9 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 9 8 13 12 10 6 4 6 8 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 197 219 215 217 219 242 243 249 232 283 256 282 291 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 151 150 146 143 141 138 136 132 128 126 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 61 65 67 66 66 72 72 71 69 65 59 56 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 23 24 25 25 23 22 25 22 21 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 51 55 45 35 27 27 14 -3 -25 -39 -41 -36 -30 200 MB DIV 75 34 37 40 88 87 79 55 62 89 51 7 7 LAND (KM) 1357 1226 1101 975 836 605 419 343 252 244 153 7 112 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.8 13.4 14.4 15.2 15.9 17.6 19.2 20.5 21.9 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 144.7 146.1 147.5 148.9 150.2 152.4 154.8 156.4 157.7 158.9 159.4 159.8 160.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 12 10 9 10 8 8 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):264/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 2. 2. 7. 1. 1. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 11. 17. 12. 10. 7. 7.