* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ORLENE EP171992 09/08/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 92 85 81 79 75 69 63 57 52 46 45 43 V (KT) LAND 100 92 85 81 79 75 69 63 57 52 46 45 43 V (KT) LGE mod 100 93 88 84 81 75 70 65 61 58 56 53 51 V (KT) G06R 70 54 53 60 59 54 52 44 48 43 40 41 46 SHEAR (KT) 18 24 23 17 9 5 6 4 2 3 10 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -15 -16 -11 -2 9 5 0 7 -3 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 92 101 118 125 94 134 32 289 252 2 279 234 222 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.6 26.1 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 131 129 125 121 118 118 118 121 125 129 131 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.7 -53.6 -52.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 72 69 70 69 70 72 69 67 64 63 61 63 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 33 33 33 34 34 32 31 30 28 27 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 6 18 6 -4 1 15 23 22 22 16 11 20 17 200 MB DIV 101 90 82 68 79 32 29 -6 1 -17 -2 -9 -10 LAND (KM) 2068 2200 2177 2108 2028 1918 1831 1686 1571 1309 1064 860 592 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.6 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.3 19.8 19.4 19.5 19.5 18.7 18.4 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 131.8 133.4 134.2 134.8 135.5 136.5 137.3 138.7 139.8 142.3 144.7 146.7 149.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 7 8 7 4 6 6 8 13 10 10 14 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):298/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -23. -31. -38. -43. -46. -49. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -9. -8. -5. -3. 0. 3. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -19. -21. -25. -31. -37. -43. -48. -54. -55. -57.