* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * INIKI EP181992 09/08/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 41 43 50 54 57 54 54 50 49 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 41 43 50 54 57 54 54 50 49 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 37 36 34 32 31 31 31 31 31 31 V (KT) G06R 54 40 41 43 47 44 44 48 56 52 52 48 49 SHEAR (KT) 19 20 24 25 21 9 8 7 7 7 6 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 8 5 10 8 9 9 13 4 10 2 0 SHEAR DIR 203 221 217 223 235 226 195 214 195 278 212 95 118 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.3 26.8 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 150 149 146 143 141 138 136 137 133 128 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 12 13 13 12 700-500 MB RH 63 66 68 66 67 68 67 67 67 65 65 58 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 23 24 24 25 27 28 29 27 26 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 43 53 50 43 42 36 24 9 -5 -12 2 -12 -32 200 MB DIV 95 58 59 100 86 62 111 65 97 15 44 30 39 LAND (KM) 1328 1194 1087 983 849 608 427 368 369 406 276 144 320 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.7 13.4 14.5 15.2 15.7 16.6 17.8 19.5 21.9 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 144.8 146.4 147.8 148.9 150.0 152.2 154.5 156.5 158.2 159.5 160.4 161.2 161.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 12 12 13 12 10 10 10 9 10 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):264/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 11. 8. 8. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 15. 19. 22. 19. 19. 15. 14.