* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ORLENE EP171992 09/08/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 92 85 82 80 72 63 58 51 47 42 41 39 V (KT) LAND 100 92 85 82 80 72 63 58 51 47 42 41 39 V (KT) LGE mod 100 94 89 85 82 76 69 63 59 57 57 56 56 V (KT) G07R 75 64 64 61 57 48 48 48 41 42 41 36 44 SHEAR (KT) 19 21 18 10 6 13 9 4 4 5 6 11 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -15 -12 -9 -1 8 6 -1 2 -1 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 84 102 125 120 72 88 75 83 130 69 267 246 230 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.5 25.6 26.0 26.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 131 129 125 121 117 118 117 120 124 128 131 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.6 -53.6 -52.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 9 9 10 10 12 700-500 MB RH 70 69 71 71 72 70 66 59 54 53 52 55 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 34 34 34 34 34 32 30 30 28 27 24 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR -2 7 4 4 10 17 32 35 45 42 44 58 69 200 MB DIV 85 69 82 81 92 50 38 -6 -11 -26 -17 0 9 LAND (KM) 2078 2200 2187 2106 2037 1927 1873 1748 1623 1372 1103 868 613 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.6 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.4 19.8 19.7 19.5 19.4 18.9 18.5 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 132.0 133.4 134.1 134.8 135.4 136.4 136.9 138.1 139.3 141.7 144.3 146.6 149.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 8 8 7 5 3 6 8 13 12 10 14 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):298/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -24. -31. -38. -43. -47. -50. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -7. -6. -7. -6. -3. -0. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -8. -9. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -18. -20. -28. -37. -42. -49. -53. -58. -59. -61.