* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ORLENE EP171992 09/08/92 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 90 81 76 71 59 45 33 23 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 90 81 76 71 59 45 33 23 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 93 86 81 76 66 57 49 43 38 35 33 32 V (KT) G10R 74 57 59 61 60 52 52 46 40 39 36 30 29 SHEAR (KT) 20 29 23 13 7 14 13 12 9 6 6 10 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -15 -11 -5 2 8 9 8 6 10 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 103 103 103 89 57 75 73 97 85 137 230 230 246 SST (C) 26.3 26.1 25.7 25.5 25.2 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.9 25.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 121 118 114 109 105 106 108 111 114 120 127 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -53.6 -53.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.7 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 10 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 67 65 65 60 55 50 50 45 45 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 38 35 36 36 37 34 31 29 26 25 20 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 14 22 27 34 37 47 57 59 57 64 43 39 21 200 MB DIV 87 93 96 101 92 76 24 5 -30 -27 7 -20 4 LAND (KM) 1953 1982 2020 2084 2074 2040 2034 1995 1880 1685 1374 1004 655 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.4 19.9 20.5 21.6 21.9 22.2 22.0 22.0 21.7 21.0 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 131.0 131.7 132.6 133.6 134.1 135.0 135.4 135.8 136.9 138.8 141.8 145.3 148.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 9 7 6 2 4 6 12 16 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):298/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -22. -31. -40. -47. -52. -56. -59. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -15. -17. -24. -25. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -19. -24. -28. -41. -55. -67. -77. -83. -92. -95. -98.